The Vineyard of the Saker: Western sanctions and Russian perceptions

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2015/02/western-sanctions-and-russian.html

I parse the Russian media (corporate and social) on a daily basis and I am always amazed at the completely different way the issue of western sanctions is discussed.  I think that it is important and useful for me to share this with those of you who do not speak Russian.

First, nobody in Russia believes that the sanctions will be lifted.  Nobody.  Of course, all the Russian politicians say that sanctions are wrong and not conducive to progress, but these are statements for external consumption.  In interviews for the Russian media or on talk shows, there is a consensus that sanctions will never be lifted no matter what Russia does.

Second, nobody in Russia believes that sanctions are a reaction to Crimea or to the Russian involvement in the Donbass.  Nobody.  There is a consensus that the Russian policy towards Crimea and the Donbass are not a cause, but a pretext for the sanctions.  The real cause of the sanctions is unanimously identified as what the Russians called the “process of sovereignization”, i.e. the fact that Russia is back, powerful and rich, and that she dares openly defy and disobey the “Axis of Kindness”.

Third, there is a consensus in Russia that the correct response to the sanctions is double: a) an external realignment of the Russian economy away from the West and b) internal reforms which will make Russia less dependent on oil exports and on the imports of various goods and technologies.

Fourth, nobody blames Putin for the sanctions or for the resulting hardships.  Everybody fully understands that Putin is hated by the West not for doing something wrong, but for doing something right.  In fact, Putin’s popularity is still at an all-time high.

Fifth, there is a wide agreement that the current Russian vulnerability is the result of past structural mistakes which now must be corrected, but nobody suggests that the return of Crimea to Russia or the Russian support for Novorussia were wrong or wrongly executed.

Finally, I would note that while Russia is ready for war, there is no bellicose mood at all.  Most Russians believe that the US/NATO/EU don’t have what it takes to directly attack Russia, they believe that the junta in Kiev is doomed and they believe that sending the Russian tanks to Kiev (or even Novorussia) would have been a mistake.

The above is very important because if you consider all these factors you can come to an absolutely unavoidable conclusion: western sanctions have exactly zero chance of achieving any change at all in Russian foreign policy and exactly zero chance of weakening the current regime.  In fact, if anything, these sanctions strengthen the Eurasian Sovereignists by allowing them to blame all the pain of economic reforms on the sanctions and they weaken the Atlantic Integrationists by making any overt support for, or association with, the West a huge political liability.

But the Eurocretins in Brussels don’t care I suppose, as long as they feel relevant or important, even if it is only in their heads.

The Saker

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4 Responses to The Vineyard of the Saker: Western sanctions and Russian perceptions

  1. Ken Harris says:

    Take this statement however you see fit, I have known this for at least six months. Can’t prove it, other than a blurb or two on the net with respect to his back ground: “Putin is a direct descendant of Nicholas II”. Believe it or not I don’t care, but that’s his lineage.

  2. Rich Pack (bamboo-water) says:

    Excellent summary of the whole sordid set of affairs
    brought to all of us, by our deeply wise, and deeply
    concerned –“Brethren”–the Eurocretins and the ever
    popular “Axis of Kindness.”

    I have been thinking about the points which the Saker
    has made here, for some time now. Perhaps its my
    feeling of being “Russian,” at least maybe in a past
    life, or maybe its just my love of Russian Fairy Tales,
    you know, children’s books. But, the Saker did leave
    a few pertinent points out of his discussion:

    1- Europe seems to have gone totally Mad! They
    seem to have forgotten some minor little disputes
    which their parents and their grandparents paid
    dearly for: WWI and WWII

    2- In this Madness, Europe has become the “Puppy-Dog”
    held by a Big Chain whose owner sits across the Big Pond
    and is referred to “lovably” as–the “Axis of Kindness.”

    Where is the wisdom in that?
    Where is the pride in that?
    Where is the power in that?
    Where is the sovereignty and self-direction in that?

    Total Madness!!!

    3- Which brings us to the “Axis of Kindness.”

    a- Greed and treasonous acts are everywhere– especially in the
    highest of places.

    b- Those whose job it is to represent the People, to serve
    and protect, are doing an excellent job–in serving and protecting
    their own arses.

    c- Any Real Progress in the “Axis of Kindness” has been stalled for over
    70 years!

    d- The majority of elected officials, and “elected” officials, from
    bottom to top, through their inactions and their actions are literally
    shredding the once Proud Ideals of the Republic and through
    their “kindness” creating the “Axis of Kindness” for all:

    + A place with less and less of anything of integrity and substance

    + A place with more and more hot air and its accompanying
    STENCH!

    + A place which still speaks of honor, integrity, freedom, respect
    and numerous other virtues–all the while it is fast-forwarding
    into the world’s and history’s most MASSIVE FASCIST STATE!

    e- And all the while this hot air and stench is going on,
    the “Axis of Kindness” is failing to realize that very soon it
    has a very important meeting
    has a very important date
    for the hour is way too late
    it has a meeting with the AXIS OF FATE
    most likely coming again
    from the likes of “Catherine the Great.”

    “Unlimited power in the hands of limited people always leads to cruelty.”

    Cloud Atlas by David Mitchell

    “Nothing ever goes away until
    it has taught us
    what we need to know.”

    Comfortable With Uncertainty – Pema Chödrön

    “In keeping silent about evil,
    in burying it so deep within us
    that no sign of it appears on the surface,

    we are implanting it, and it will rise up
    a thousand fold in the future.
    When we neither punish nor reproach evildoers,

    we are not simply protecting their trivial old age,
    we are thereby ripping the foundations of justice
    from beneath new generations.”

    The Gulag Archipelago – Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn

    “What matters most is how well you walk through the fire.”

    Charles Bukowski

    Jai Gurudev,
    bamboo-water

    • Jean says:

      Yes, “What matters most is how well you walk through the fire. ” . . . not even that we get through it, but how well we walk this path, right now, today🙂 Hugs, ~Jean

  3. Hildegard says:

    To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction (or response in Russia’s case). If only the Cabal could control Universal Law Oh How Happy They Would Be!

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